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For the last 10 years, the US has been the largest market for Swiss watch exports. With the value of exports to the US declining 3% from the previous year and Hong Kong growing by 10.9%, Hong Kong became the largest market at the end of 2008. The US fell to second place but it is still a market twice as large as Japan in third place. Europe is first represented on the list until France appears at number four and is followed closely by Italy in fifth. China as an export market for Swiss watches gained an enormous 43.1% in 2008 when compared to their 2007 results. China was followed by the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia with gains of 27.6% and 24.0% respectively In contrast, Spain had the biggest decline of any of the markets in the top 15 with a decline of 13.5%.

The strong growth of Swiss watch export markets seen in 2007 continued into 2008 and even though in the final quarter exports declined by 7.8% due to the Global Financial Crisis, the year ended with the total value of exports increasing by 6.7%. 2008 therefore was surprisingly being another record year on the strength of the results of the first three quarters and followed the 2007 record year.

The top 15 markets for Swiss watch exports in 2008 with the percentage variation against 2007 and the total value in million US dollars are:

1. Hong Kong ($2,405, +10.9%)

2. USA ($2,111, -3.0%)

3. Japan ($1,053, -4.5%)

4. France ($1,008, +15.1%)

5. Italy ($932, +2.5%)

6. Germany ($814, +10.2%)

7. China ($736, +43.1%)

8. Singapore ($698, +16.8%)

9. United Arab Emirates ($600, +27.6%)

10. United Kingdom ($571, -2.7%)

11. Spain ($403, -13.5%)

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12. Russia ($259, -9.7%)

13. Taiwan ($258, +5.1%)

14. Thailand ($236, +11.8%)

15. Saudi Arabia ($213, +24.0%)

The outlook for Swiss watch exports continues to be pessimistic after the decline seen in the last quarter of 2008 and the results of the first two months of 2009. The Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry has released the January and February 2009 results showing exports to the US almost halved (47.5%) compared to the same month in 2008 and the combined result for the first two months was a decline of 38%. The US market has shown the biggest decline while others have not been affected as severely with Japan being the next worst result with a decline of 13.5%

It wasn’t doom and gloom across the entire price range. Exports of watches with an export price of more than 3,000 francs (USD $2676 at the time of writing) increased in 2008 by nearly 20%, in contrast to watches with export prices below 3,000 francs. The number of watches exported priced below 3,000 francs and particularly between 500 (USD $446) and 3,000 francs (USD $2676) fell when compared with the 2007 results.

As the economic conditions get tougher, luxury items like luxury watches are seen by middle income earners as purchases that are hard to justify when their personal financial circumstances are less secure. For hign income earners, a high end luxury watch is still relatively affordable and this can be seen by lesser effect on the upper end of the luxury watch export market. It will be interesting to see how long the current difficult times continue before we see a return to overall growth in all the Swiss watch export markets.

It is worth remembering that 2008 was a record year after a number of record years for the Swiss watch industry so declining sales after sustained growth is not an immediate recipe for diaster but most believe that it is unlikely that any export records will be achieved for some time into the future.

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